Page 35 - Abrasca Anuário Estatístico 2018
P. 35

    Matéria de capa Cover story
      período posterior, em que o custo de capital próprio de mantem em nível elevado, o número de empresas abertas cai 14%, com redução continuada de 404 empresas em 2007, para apenas 349 em 2016. Verificou-se também que o número de deslistagens voluntárias está positivamente correlacionado com o custo do capital próprio.
No mercado de renda fixa, taxas mais elevadas de juros de títulos públicos deslocam a poupança financeira de papéis de dívida corporativa, ao mesmo tempo em que o aumento do custo desses papéis desestimula sua utilização como fonte de recursos das empresas. O Gráfico 02 resume a evidência da alta correlação negativa (-0,741) existente entre a emissão de debêntures de empresas não financeiras e a taxa de juros dos títulos públicos CDI.
Acresce notar que após 2010 a forte expansão da oferta de crédito a taxas subsidiadas do BNDES, em sua maior parte destinado a empresas grandes e qualificadas para emitir papéis de dívida, passou a representar a melhor alternativa de endividamento para essas empresas.
Gráfico 1 / Graph 1
Correlação entre o número de emissões primárias de ações e o custo de capital próprio no Brasil / Correlation between the number of primary issuances of shares and the cost of equity in Brazil
   15,0% 14,0% 13,0% 12,0% 11,0% 10,0%
9,0% 8,0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Custo de Capital Próprio CEMEC / Cost of Equity CEMEC IPOs + Follow-On
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
             Correlação = -0,897
Correlation = -0,897
             Fonte: CEMEC, B3 e ANBIMA Elaboração: CEMEC
Gráfico 2 / Graph 2
Source: CEMEC, B3 and ANBIMA Prepared by: CEMEC
 Volume de emissões de debêntures (ex leasing) e taxas de juros / Volume of issuance of debentures (e.g. leasing) and interest rate
  1,20       9.000
% CDI ao mês Volume de Emissão de Debêntures Não Leasing
% CDI per month No-Leasing Debenture Issuance Volume
      Correlação = -0,7406
Correlation = -0,7406
1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50
8.000
7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000
Fonte: CEMEC, B3 e ANBIMA Elaboração: CEMEC
Source: CEMEC, B3 and ANBIMA Prepared by: CEMEC
 investment is modest and practically stopped growing after the favorable cycle that prevailed until the crisis of 2008.
As has been emphasized in several works by CEMEC3, the capitals market has been particularly affected by the unfavorable4 macro-economic scenario. In addition to reducing the number and volume of primary issuances until 2016, the stock market has maintained the characteristic that only a small proportion of large enterprises manage to obtain funding on this market through large issuances, intermediated by big banks, absorbed primarily by major investors, with significant participation by foreign investors. It turns out that less than 5% of the large
companies are publicly traded companies, while only 8% of them have issued shares or debt securities in the five-year period prior to 2015. Despite the incentive measures adopted in recent years to stimulate the opening up of capital to smaller companies, only a dozen companies are in the market for access and the number of listed companies has fallen in recent years. The individual investor base, which is a relevant factor to sustain a dynamic access market, is only 0.3% of the population5 , a number that compares with an average of 5% of emerging markets, 7% in India, 13% in the USA, 5% in China.
Continually high real rates of interest for long periods of time is the main factor
of inhibiting the development of Brazil’s capitals market. In this context, to compete alongside investors with government securities with sovereign credit risk, high liquidity and indexation alternatives free of market risks, the shares, high market risk investment, should offer an exceptionally high risk premium. Under these conditions, the cost of corporate equity capital is at a rate much far exceeding the return rate that most companies are able to offer, while government securities attract investors’ preferences. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that since the adoption of the Plano Real in 1994, except in certain short periods, the accumulated profitability of shares has been
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