Page 36 - Abrasca Anuário Estatístico 2018
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    Matéria de capa Cover story
      3. O CENÁRIO ECONÔMICO DE 2017 E O MERCADO DE CAPITAIS
No mercado de dívida corpora- tiva, o principal fator de mudança do cenário macroeconômico é a redução da taxa de juros, iniciada em 2016 e com acentuada queda em 2017, como evidenciado no Gráfico 03.
Por sua vez, no mercado de ações a queda da taxa de juros também é acompanhada pela redução do custo de capital próprio (Gráfico 04)7, fator que combinado com a melhoria das expectativas de resultados das empresas, dá sustentação à acentuada valorização das ações no mercado. Não obstante deva ser reconhecida a influência da participação dos investidores estrangeiros8, reforçada pelo cenário internacional de grande liquidez, baixas taxas de juros e valorização das bolsas internacionais, não se deve subestimar o impacto da melhoria do cenário doméstico.
O segundo componente a estimular a captação de recursos no mercado de capitais é a mudança de posicionamento e da política operacional do BNDES, anunciada em 2016, que implicou forte redução
Gráfico 3 / Graph 3
Taxa real de juros: swap pré-di 360 dias deflacionado
pela expectativa de IPCA 12 meses
Real interest rate: pre-di swap 360 days deflated by expected 12-month IPCA
   10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00%
6,71%
5,57%
9,14%
7,26%
               1,50%
2,23%
  Fonte: B3 e Focus Elaboração: CEMEC
Gráfico 4 / Graph 4
Source: B3 and Focus Prepared by: CEMEC
 Custo de capital próprio – média das empresas não financeiras do Ibovespa / Capital cost – average of non-financial companies in Ibovespa
  22,00% 21,00% 20,00% 19,00% 18,00% 17,00% 16,00% 15,00% 14,00% 13,00% 12,00% 11,00% 10,00%
9,00%
 Custo de capital próprio real
Real cost of equity
Custo de capital próprio nominal
Nominal cost of equity
         14,67%
     10,26%
much lower than that offered by government securities.
Chart 1 shows that the number of primary issuances, including IPOs and follow- on operations presents significant negative correlation (almost -0.90) with the cost of equity6, this influenced directly by real interest rate of the government securities.
The period of 2006 and 2007, which is when the most important cycle of primary issuances of recent years occurred, coincides with the cost of equity at its lowest level in the whole period considered in Chart 1. It is also noted that in 2006 and 2007, about 40% of divestments made by equity investment funds adopted the initial public offering (IPO) as a
Fonte: CEMEC
strategy of disinvestment, with positive impact on the number of listed companies. Later on, when the cost of equity remains at a high level, the number of publicly-held companies falls 14%, with continued reduction of 404 companies in 2007, to just 349 in 2016. It was also found that the number of voluntary delistings is positively correlated with the cost of equity.
In the fixed income market, higher rates of interest on government securities shift financial savings of corporate debt papers, while the increase in the cost of these papers discourages their use as a source of funding by companies.
Source: CEMEC
Chart 2 summarizes the evidence of the high negative correlation (-0.741) existing between the issuance of debentures by non-financial companies and the interest rate of CDI government securities.
It is worth noting that after 2010 the strong expansion of subsidized-rate credit offers from BNDES, mostly aimed at large companies qualified to issue debt papers, came to represent the best alternative of indebtedness for these companies.
3. THE 2017 ECONOMIC SCENARIO AND THE CAPITALS MARKET
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