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    Matéria de capa Cover story
      doméstico das empresas e o PIB real como índice com base em 2006 no período de 2007 a 2017.
Utilizando uma regressão linear simples entre o exigível financeiro (% do PIB) e o PIB real acumulado
desde 2007 e com as expectativas do PIB real do sistema de expectativas Focus projetou-se o exigível financeiro doméstico das empresas para os próximos dez anos como mostra a Tabela 01.
A Tabela 02 apresenta ano a ano os percentuais de cada fonte de financiamento doméstico das empresas no período de 2007 a 2017.
Com base na percentagem de cada fonte de financiamento,
Tabela 1 / Table 1
Projeção do exigível financeiro doméstico das empresas
Projected domestic financial liabilities of companies
  Anos
Years
  Exigível Financeiro Doméstico % PIB
Domestic Financial Liabilities% GDP
  PIB Acumulado desde 2007
GDP Real Index 2006=1
 2018
  34,80%
  1,268
 2019
  37,00%
  1,308
 2020
   38,90%
   1,342
   2021
 40,80%
 1,377
 2022
  42,80%
  1,413
 2023
  44,90%
  1,45
 2024
   46,90%
   1,488
   2025
 49,10%
 1,527
 2026
   51,30%
   1,567
   2027
  53,60%
  1,608
   Tabela 2 / Table 2
Fontes do exigível financeiro doméstico das empresas - % do total
Sources of domestic financial liabilities of companies -% of total
          Anos
Years
Mercado de Capitais Capitals Market
Crédito Bancário Recursos livres Bank Credit – Free Resources
Crédito Direcionado BNDES Directed Credit BNDES
Crédito Direcionado Outros Directed Credit Others
Total Recursos Domésticos
Total Domestic Resources
        dez/07
15,00%
52,10%
23,00%
9,90%
100,00%
        dez/08
16,10%
52,60%
22,70%
8,60%
100,00%
             dez/09
17,10%
46,60%
27,60%
8,80%
100,00%
        dez/10
18,90%
43,70%
29,00%
8,40%
100,00%
        dez/11
20,50%
43,40%
28,20%
7,90%
100,00%
             dez/12
22,00%
43,10%
27,10%
7,80%
100,00%
        dez/13
23,70%
40,50%
26,80%
8,90%
100,00%
        dez/14
25,10%
38,20%
27,70%
9,00%
100,00%
        dez/15
25,20%
38,10%
27,70%
8,90%
100,00%
             dez/16
25,30%
38,00%
26,70%
10,00%
100,00%
        dez/17
28,80%
37,90%
24,00%
9,20%
100,00%
      to 2017. Given a set of assumptions on the change in the breakdown of financial liabilities in this period, an estimate of the sum of companies’ debt from the capitals market is obtained.
The 10-year simulation was based in the GDP growth projections contained in the FOCUS expectations system for the next
five years and maintained for the remaining five years at a value equivalent to last year of FOCUS expectation. Chart 7 shows companies’ financial liabilities and the real GDP as an index based on 2006 for the period from 2007 to 2017.
Using a simple linear regression between the financial liabilities (% of GDP) and the
real accumulated GDP since 2007 and with the expectations of real GDP from the Focus expectations system, the domestic financial liabilities of companies was projected for the next ten years as shown in Table 1.
Table 2 presents year-by-year percentages of each source of domestic financing of companies in the period 2007 to 2017.
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