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    Matéria de capa Cover story
      Tabela 3 / Table 3
Fontes do exigível financeiro doméstico das empresas - % do PIB
Sources of domestic financial liabilities of companies - % of GDP
        Anos
Years
Mercado de Capitais Capitals Market
Crédito Bancário Recursos livres Bank Credit – Free Resources
Crédito Direcionado BNDES Directed Credit BNDES
Crédito Direcionado Outros Directed Credit Others
Total Recursos Domésticos
Total Domestic Resources
      dez/07 3,30% 11,50% 5,10% 2,20% 22,10%
      dez/08 4,30% 14,10% 6,10% 2,30% 26,80%
      dez/09 4,90% 13,30% 7,90% 2,50% 28,60%
      dez/10 5,60% 12,90% 8,60% 2,50% 29,60%
      dez/11 6,50% 13,90% 9,00% 2,50% 31,90%
        dez/12 7,60% 14,80% 9,30% 2,70% 34,40%
      dez/13 8,60% 14,60% 9,70% 3,20% 36,10%
      dez/14 9,50% 14,40% 10,50% 3,40% 37,70%
      dez/15 9,80% 14,70% 10,70% 3,50% 38,70%
        dez/16 8,30% 12,50% 8,80% 3,30% 32,90%
      dez/17 8,90% 11,70% 7,40% 2,90% 30,90%
      dez/18 10,10% 13,20% 8,30% 3,20% 34,80%
      dez/19 10,80% 14,00% 8,80% 3,40% 37,00%
      dez/20 11,40% 14,70% 9,20% 3,60% 38,90%
      dez/21 12,00% 15,50% 9,60% 3,70% 40,80%
        dez/22 12,60% 16,20% 10,10% 3,90% 42,80%
      dez/23 13,30% 17,00% 10,50% 4,10% 44,90%
      dez/24 14,00% 17,80% 10,90% 4,20% 46,90%
      dez/25 14,70% 18,60% 11,40% 4,40% 49,10%
        dez/26 15,40% 19,40% 11,90% 4,60% 51,30%
      dez/27 16,20% 20,30% 12,30% 4,80% 53,60%
        5. SIMULATION OF THE NUMBER OF IPOS IN B3 OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
The previous projection was based on the inventory of financing sources of domestic financial liabilities of companies. Also added to these amounts are the volume of primary issuances, IPOs and follow-on, made in the stock market which are increases in own equity and not debt. Instead of projecting volumes, we preferred to try to estimate the number of new companies listed on B3, that is, the estimated number of IPOs that might occur in this scenario of low interest rates, GDP growth and low, stable inflation.
Earlier works by CEMEC show that there is a high correlation between the number of
IPOs and follow-on and the cost of own equity. Chart 9 shows that the number of primary issuances, including only “IPOs”, presents significant negative correlation (-0.84) with the cost of own equity12, this influenced directly by the real rate of interest of government securities.
It is also noted that in 2006 and 2007, about 40% of divestments made by equity investment funds (FIPs) adopted the initial public offering (IPO) as disinvestment strategy, having a positive impact on the number of listed companies. Later, when the cost of own equity maintained at a high level, the number of publicly-held companies falls 14%, with continued reduction of 404 companies in 2007, to just 349 in 2016. It was also found13
that the number of voluntary delistings is positively correlated to the cost of own equity. Using the high negative correlation between the cost of own equity and the number of IPOs, it is possible to estimate, through a simple linear regression, and with the hypothesis that the cost of own equity will continue to fall from 10.9% in 2017 to 9.0% in 2027 (value similar to that of the year 2007, the year of the explosion of new listed companies) that the number of companies will nearly double in the next ten years (an addition
of 317 new companies listed in the period).
6. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE CAPITALS MARKET
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